"Hit rate" and how is it determined?
The hit rate in an article shows the % of time when the data was in the configuration that underpins the insight and the price moved in the expected direction, as in the following example "90% of the time when the PE of Verizon is below 10, then the stock goes is up after 3 months."It is a measure of accuracy of prediction
To clarify, the forward projections in insights are based on prior returns, not prior prices.In going through the backtest, TOGGLE measures predicted returns when the insight was triggered in the past, and what actually happened. The actual returns are used to inform the next projection (and so on and so forth).
Conflicting insights
In general, it is not uncommon for different aspects of a stock to pull the price in a different direction: for example, a stock with strong momentum might become expensive and then the strong momentum remains supportive for price, but expensive valuations start to weigh prices down.TOGGLE makes sure you know what matters the most, then it's up to you to assemble the puzzle and make a decision. When opposite forces are at play on a stock the investment can become *very* interesting, but it's a matter of style. Maybe you prefer more straightforward situations and that's fine, too.
Now onto Jeronimo Martins. Looks like something interesting happened here: first in April there was a cluster of bullish insights based on value, then in May and June there was another cluster of insight driven by the price action being very quiet. All of these proved to be correct. And finally now there's a new insight in July that notes the price is back at the top of its range.
What's happening is that the stock narrative is changing - and that is normal because both prices and fundamentals might have shifted.
Choosing an insight
On the left-hand side of the page you can see a section called Filters. In this section you can select criteria to filter TOGGLE's published articles to receive an array of insights and assets that interest you. You can filter by top screens such as assets on your watchlist, popular insights, insights you bookmarked, and other characteristics. You can also filter the page by a variety of features applicable to both the asset and the insight. This consists of: stars the insight received on TOGGLE's quality check, bullish or bearish predictions, return profile, asset class (i.e. equities, currencies, or commodities), financial instruments, geography, the insight's horizon, driver, and the market caps or sectors of stocks listed.
Sharing an insight
Interested in sharing something you found with a friend or colleague? Simply copy+paste the URL or use one of the share buttons on the left side of the insight article.
Episodes vs. Trading Days
"Number of days" represents the count of each trading day during which the stock's fundamentals were in the same condition as of today
"Episodes" are a grouping of the trading days above - i.e. maybe the stock's fundamentals were in this condition 30 days in the past, of which 10 in May 2016 and 15 in June 2020 and 5 in Mar 2021